College Closure Crisis Context

• Mount Ida College (Newton, MA) closed April 6, 2018 after 119 years
  • 1,500 students notified by email on Friday
  • Students left with debt, no diploma
  • Professors had signed contracts for following year
• College enrollment declining since 2010, causing funding shortages
• Colleges closing ~once per week nationwide
• Newbury College (15 miles from Mount Ida) also closed following fall

Demographic Shift - Birth Rate Decline

• US family size stable 1990-2007: 2.0-2.1 children average
• Sharp decline began 2007, continuing 17 years
• Smaller birth cohorts now reaching college age (17 years old)
• Next 5 years: 11% decrease in new university enrollments expected
  • ~300,000 fewer students annually
  • 1/3 of US universities have <1,000 students
  • 75% have <5,000 students

Economic Explanation for Birth Rate Decline

• 2007 financial crisis coincided with birth rate drop
• US unemployment doubled: 5% to 10% within one year
• Cost increases in child-related expenses (past 20+ years):
  • Housing: 95% increase
  • Childcare: 120% increase
  • College: 180% increase
  • Healthcare: >200% increase
• Economic recovery was gradual/uneven
• "Baby bonuses" globally show limited effectiveness
  • Would cost US $250 billion annually to increase family size by 0.2 children

Cultural Changes Affecting Birth Rates

• Gender role transformation:
  • Women now pursue careers vs. traditional homemaking
  • Stay-at-home motherhood stigmatized
• Parenting style evolution:
  • From passive state to active, intensive verb
  • Organized activities replace independent play
  • Parents shuttle children between activities (swim, baseball, chess, piano)
  • High-stakes social competition among parents
  • "Keeping up with Joneses" now about camps, instructors, programs
• Loss of parental autonomy - schedules controlled by coaches/teachers
• Increased anxiety/pessimism about children's future prospects

Survey Data - American Family Size Preferences

• Gallup polling since 1936 on ideal family size
• Current average ideal: 2.7 children (unchanged since 1980)
• Only 2% want zero children (consistent across decades)
• Cultural attitudes haven't changed significantly
• Gap between ideal (2.7) and intended (2.2) and actual (1.7) fertility
• Since 2007: gap between desired vs. actual fertility tripled

Housing Crisis Impact

• Housing largest child-related cost (extra bedrooms, suburbs, school districts)
• Average mortgage size:
  • January 2019: $300,000
  • Three years later: $440,000
• 2018 survey: 4 of top 5 reasons for fewer children were financial

Sequential Life Pattern Changes

• Children now "capstone" vs. parallel to other life goals
• Prerequisites before children: education, career, marriage, homeownership
• Median marriage age: 28 (up from 24 in 1990)
• Median first child age: 30 (up from 27 in 1990)
• Marriage rate decline: 86 per 1,000 (1970) to 30 per 1,000 (today)

Success Sequence Impact

• Cultural messaging: graduate high school → get job → marry → have children
• 40% of birth rate decline driven by fewer teenage pregnancies
• Half of teenage pregnancies were under 18

Positive Aspects of Change

• Expanded opportunities for women
• Improved workplace wages/treatment
• Freedom for those who don't want children
• Reduced childhood poverty during COVID stimulus

US Advantages vs. Other Countries

• US fertility rate: 1.7 (higher than Russia 1.4, Finland 1.3, Spain 1.2, Hong Kong 0.7)
• Immigration advantages:
  • Long history of accepting immigrants
  • Large population aids assimilation
  • English dominance
• Americans still desire larger families (2.7 ideal)

Global Context

• Global fertility rate: 4.7 (1960) to 2.3 (today)
• Universal pattern: wealth → smaller families
• Children's role evolution:
  • Assets (farm work, apprenticeships age 6-7)
  • Neutral/self-sufficient
  • High-maintenance projects
• Healthcare improvements → higher survival rates
• Urban migration → space constraints

China Comparison

• China's ideal birth rate: 1.7 (America's actual rate)
• One-Child Policy effectiveness myths
• Government claims: prevented 400 million births, lifted 800 million from poverty
• Reality: policy caused suffering without proportional effectiveness

Solution Framework

• Problem is ability, not desire (Americans want 2.7 children)
• Focus on gap between desired (2.7) and actual (1.7) fertility
• If Americans had desired children: population would grow by UK/France/Germany equivalent
• Not "birth rate crisis" but housing/healthcare/education/childcare crisis
• Two-bird approach: make housing affordable for its own sake AND enable family goals