Polling Challenge Setup

• Fantasy realm transitioning from dragon jousting to democracy
• Two candidates: giant orange troll vs experienced tree statesman
• Dormor Polling Agency hired by all-powerful eyebrow
• High stakes: incorrect prediction = literal beheading
• Problem: citizens reluctant to admit troll support due to controversial reputation
• Stranger's cryptic advice: "what have you got in your pocket?"
• Solution tool: silver coin with king's head/tail

First Polling Method - Single Candidate Masking

• Technique: single coin flip for deniability
• Process:
  • Each voter flips coin privately
  • Heads = report "troll" regardless of actual preference
  • Tails = report actual preference
• Results example:
  • 200 voters polled
  • 130 reported troll support
  • ~100 coin-forced troll responses (50% heads probability)
  • Real troll support: 30 votes (130-100)
  • Actual distribution: 30 troll, 70 tree (troll likely to lose)

Election Disruption

• Third party dragon candidate burns treefellow alive
• Constitution mandates murderer takes victim's place in new election
• New polling challenge: both candidates now stigmatized
• Troll support still shameful
• Dragon support problematic (murder-based candidacy)

Second Polling Method - Dual Candidate Masking

• Enhanced technique: double coin flip for four outcomes
• Process:
  • Each voter flips coin twice
  • Two heads = report "troll"
  • Two tails = report "dragon"
  • Mixed results = report true preference
• Probability calculations:
  • 25% chance two heads (forced troll response)
  • 25% chance two tails (forced dragon response)
  • 50% true preference reporting
• Results example:
  • 105 reported troll, 95 reported dragon
  • Subtract 50 forced responses from each
  • Real distribution: 55 troll, 45 dragon
  • Troll wins by narrow margin

Outcome

• Troll wins election as predicted
• Polling agency survives/succeeds