Climate Tipping Points are Real, Stop Denying It

Sabine Hossenfelder

Anthony Watts' Criticism of NYT Climate Article

NYT published article on climate tipping points
Anthony Watts (climate change denier, Heartland Institute) wrote blog post attacking article
Claims article is "speculation with pretty graphics"
Criticizes use of "weasel words" (could, may, might, possibly)
Argues article makes no solid predictions

Tipping points are examples of hysteresis (path dependence)
System state depends on:
- Current external variables (temperature)
- Historical path to current state
Everyday examples:
- Chocolate: melting/cooling changes crystal structure permanently
- Butter: similar temperature-dependent structural changes
Climate tipping points: temperature-induced changes that don't reverse when temperatures drop

Mountain glaciers: ice won't "crawl back up" if temperatures drop
Glacier formation takes thousands of years
Even with consistently cold temperatures, regrowth slower than melting
Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets:
- Complete melting could raise sea levels 50m+ by 2300
- Florida would be underwater
- London would need submarines for sightseeing
Positive feedback: reduced reflectivity speeds warming
Recent study: major Antarctic ice sheet collapse mechanism "implausible" (good news)

Permanently frozen soil releases methane when thawed
Methane contributes to global warming (positive feedback)
Methane won't return to ground when temperatures drop
Recent study findings:
- Methane release probably not large enough for significant warming contribution
- Unlikely to cause runaway effect
- Runaway effect would mean initial release accelerates further release

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (not Gulf Stream)
Drives warm water/air to northern Atlantic
Major contributor to mild climate in middle/northern Europe
Once shut down, might take thousands of years to restart
Watts claims no evidence of AMOC slowing
Evidence of AMOC problems has increased since last discussion
Stefan Rahmstorf changed position: previously said collapse unlikely, now changed mind

Watts' main complaint: NYT article doesn't predict exact timing
Predictions extremely difficult for tipping points
Certainty of physical processes:
- Frozen soil will thaw when warmer
- Ice will melt as temperatures rise
Lack of precise timing doesn't justify ignoring risks
Uncertainty about timing = reason not to gamble with further warming

Climate models don't account for social/political feedback
Dangerous mindset: "If AMOC collapsed anyway, why reduce CO2 emissions?"
Most critical tipping point: public opinion shift from "we can do it" to "why bother"
Recommendation: "keep calm and keep dusting your solar panels"

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