Tax Policy Differences

• Trump and Biden most far apart on taxes
• Both candidates promise no middle-income tax rate increases
• Biden's tax plan:
  • Raise taxes on wealthy households
  • Top 1% would see after-tax income drop 17% (Tax Policy Center analysis)
  • New tax credits for low-end workers to lessen burden
  • Philosophy: "don't need tax code that rewards wealth more than work"
• Trump's tax approach:
  • 2017 tax cuts set to expire 2025
  • Wants to make tax cuts permanent if reelected
  • Treasury ordered to defer Social Security tax collection this year
  • Plans to make Social Security tax deferrals permanent if reelected

China Trade Relations

• Both candidates face new era of economic tension with China
• Trump's China policy:
  • Imposed tariffs: 7.5% to 25% on $350+ billion worth of Chinese products
  • Reached ceasefire deal with China earlier this year
  • Coronavirus added new chill to US-China relationship
• Biden's China approach:
  • Won't move fast to remove China tariffs
  • Wants "open and constructive relationship" while defending national interests
  • Plans to repair alliances with other countries (Canada, Mexico, Germany)
  • "Build Back Better" plan rejects defeatist view on automation/globalization

Energy and Environment Policy

• Candidates "worlds apart" reflecting different party concerns
• Trump's energy policy:
  • Pulled out of Paris Agreement on climate change
  • Prioritized domestic fuel production
  • Sped up approvals for new pipelines and energy infrastructure
  • Supports jobs in energy-producing regions (Appalachians, West Texas)
  • Plans further deregulation if reelected
• Biden's environmental plan:
  • Rejoin Paris Agreement
  • Make new commitments to reduce US carbon emissions
  • Regulations to cut commercial building emissions by 2030
  • $2 trillion spending plan for solar and wind power investment

Government Spending Patterns

• Both candidates follow "go big or go home" approach
• Biden's spending plans:
  • $5.4 trillion additional spending over 10 years
  • Twice as large as Hillary Clinton's 2016 proposal
  • Increases in education, infrastructure, housing, environment spending
• Trump's spending record:
  • Federal spending jumped 15% in first 3 years (pre-coronavirus)
  • 2020 spending projected at $6.6 trillion (double 2000 levels)
  • Additional borrowing in first term: $6.5+ trillion
  • Equals total US borrowing from 1789 to 2008 recession

Federal Reserve Relationship

• Fed chair among most important presidential relationships
• President appoints chair and 6 of 12 Fed governors
• Trump-Powell dynamics:
  • Trump appointed Jerome Powell as Fed chair
  • Criticized Powell for not keeping interest rates low enough
  • Powell moved aggressively during coronavirus crisis, winning Trump praise
  • Powell asserted independence from loyalty-focused president
• Future Fed leadership:
  • Trump must decide on Powell reappointment in 2022
  • Biden would face same choice if elected
  • Historical precedent: Obama and Clinton (Democrats) both reappointed Republican Fed chairs for market stability