Introduction to Long-termism

• Long-termism: philosophical idea that long-term future of humanity is way more important than present
• Those alive today should make sacrifices for all generations to come
• Roots in effective altruism movement (followers try to be smart about donating money for biggest impact)
• Popular among rich people: Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, Jan Talinn

Scale of Future vs Present Lives

• Visual representation: hourglass with grains of sand representing 10 million people each
  • Red grains: past lives (~110 billion people)
  • Green grains: current lives (~8 billion people)
  • Conservative estimate: billion people for billion years = billion billion human life years
  • With 100-year lifespan: ~10^16 human lives
  • If populate galaxy/other galaxies: numbers explode into billions and billions

Key Figures and Institutions

Nick Bostrom

• Philosopher who believes we live in computer simulation
• 2008: discussed existential risk of programmer pulling plug on simulation
• 2009 paper: "non-existential disaster causing breakdown of global civilization is potentially recoverable setback"
  • "Giant massacre for men, small misstep for mankind"
• 2013: calculated reducing existential risk by 1 billionth of 1 billionth of 1% worth 100 billion times more than billion human lives in present
• Director of Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford

William MacAskill

• Professor of philosophy, University of Oxford
• Published book "What We Owe the Future"
• 2019 paper with Hilary Greaves: "The Case for Strong Long-termism"

Hilary Greaves

• Philosopher and director of Global Priorities Institute, Oxford
• Co-authored paper stating decision makers can "often simply ignore all effects contained in first 100 or even 1,000 years"
• This passage later removed from 2021 version

Supporting Organizations

• Future of Life Institute (Cambridge, Massachusetts)
• Supported by billionaires: Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, Jan Talinn
• Musk commented MacAskill's book is "close match for his philosophy"

Core Long-termist Principles

• First priority: minimize existential risks
• Existential risks include: asteroid impact, nuclear world war, other extinction events
• Don't care about famines/floods (won't lead to extinction)
• Current conditions of living don't play big role
• Few million deaths acceptable so long as don't go extinct
• Can ignore short-term effects (first 100-1000 years) while focusing on far future

Criticisms of Long-termism

Peter Singer (Effective Altruism Founder)

• Frustrated that followers flocking to long-termism
• Calls referring to helping global poor/reducing animal suffering as "feel-good project" harsh language
• Argues long-termism might be excuse to stop donating to Africa
• Points out tragedy of premature death: cuts short lives of specific living persons
• Notes entire argument depends on how much value put on future lives

Steven Pinker

• Complained about certainty on matters we're ignorant about
• Future is "garden of exponentially forking paths"
• Criticized "stipulating incorrect answers to unsolvable philosophical conundrums"
• Noted "blind confidence in tech advances that may never happen"

Media Criticism

• Time Magazine: Musk sold fantasy that tech + market could change world without government role
• Washington Post (Christine Emba): long-termism allows tech/finance/philosophy elites to indulge anti-humanistic tendencies
• Criticism of technocratic vision as anti-democratic
• "Future becomes clean slate for moral certitude and techno-utopian fantasies"

Philosophical Analysis

Pascal's Mugging Thought Experiment

• Stranger in alley claims to be mugger, asks for wallet
• Offers increasingly large returns (double, 100x, million times)
• Economic logic suggests eventually risk worth it
• But most people wouldn't give money regardless of promise
• Point: if agree to any value, anyone can use same strategy to take everything

Core Problem

• How to assign probability to unlikely future events
• For Pascal's mugger: unlikely event mugger will deliver promise
• For long-termism: unlikely existential threats
• Logical conclusion: spend as much as possible on unlikely events we know least about
• Makes most currently alive people expendable

Moral vs Logical Arguments

• Value of human lives requires moral argument, not just logic
• Nothing irrational about not caring about starving children in Africa
• Nothing irrational about not caring about people who may/may not live on Mars in billion years
• Question of personal moral values

Author's Perspective

• Appreciates long-term strategies (10-20 years to 10,000-10 billion years)
• Values long-termist focus on preventing existential risks
• Believes they underestimate how technological progress depends on:
  • Reliability/sustainability of current political systems
  • Economic systems
  • Ecological systems
• Progress needs ideas, ideas come from brains that need food and knowledge