China's Nuclear Arsenal Size and Comparison

• China estimated to have ~290 nuclear weapons
• Fewest among five NPT signatories
  • Russia: 6,500 warheads
  • United States: 6,100 warheads
• Despite small arsenal, policies and usage implications worth exploring

No First Use Policy

• China's foremost nuclear strategy: will not be first to use nuclear weapons under any circumstances
• First nuclear-armed country to adopt this policy (1964)
• Aimed to avoid sparking three-way arms race between China, Soviets, and US
• Other countries repeatedly declined adopting policy despite international pressure
• PLA reaffirmed adherence in July 2019 defense white paper

Practical Reasons for No First Use

• PLA lacks advanced missiles compared to US
• Less than half of weapons capable of hitting continental US
• Cannot hit US nuclear second-strike capability
• Cannot stop retaliatory attacks
• Weapons are "broad sledgehammers": 200-300 kiloton yields
  • Compare to US B61 bombs: capable of 0.3 kiloton yields
• Using one weapon causes maximum damage, elicits immediate immense retaliation

Philosophical Roots

• Policy traces back to Chairman Mao and first generation PLA generals
• Belief: nuclear weapons have limited utility in war
• Deng Xiaoping's 1980s view: "if you have them I will have them, if we have more I will have more, perhaps no one will dare use them"
• Conventional war possible and winnable
• Nuclear weapons needed only for defensive deterrence

Strategic Focus

• No first use allows PLA to focus on Navy, Air Force, Army, cyber warfare
• Seeks to win conventional battles in local context against local actors
• Attempts quick victories hoping to de-escalate before nuclear threshold
• Utilizes China's immense size and population to wear down enemies
• Aims for victory or favorable ending through conventional means

2015 Military Reorganization

• China reorganized/modernized Armed Forces (PLA)
• Goal: improve command lines
• Created PLA Rocket Force as co-equal branch alongside Army, Navy, Air Force
• Responsible for maintaining conventional and nuclear missiles
• Unclear if includes nuclear weapons maintained by PLA Air Force and Navy

Nuclear Weapons Control and Paranoia

• Chinese Communist Party paranoid about accidental firing
• Rumors: nuclear warheads stored separately from missiles
• Will wait and confirm attack before retaliating
• Willing to accept tactical losses (e.g., Shanghai's 30 million people)
• Rocket Force reports only to Central Military Commission (CMC)
• CMC: power behind Communist Party, made up of party officials and military types
• Nuclear firing signal comes exclusively from CMC
• Confirmed through interviews with dozens of current/retired rocket force officers
• All military policy materials: fire nuclear weapons only "when CMC says you should"
• CMC decision-making process entirely opaque - no public information available

Current PLA Focus on US Conflict

• Primary focus: beating United States in certain theaters of war
• Studying Cold War doctrines and materiel to understand US nuclear beliefs
• Conclusion: USA will not militarily intervene for East Asian allies (Taiwan, Japan) using nuclear weapons
• Believe US officials will work behind scenes to defuse situations
• Assessment: if chips are down, US will abandon ally rather than risk nuclear damage to homeland
• Willing to accept "Titanic loss of face" rather than risk nuclear war

War Termination Strategy

• PLA not eager to test assumptions about US behavior
• If conventional war going badly, likely to seek face-saving resolution
• May terminate war on unfavorable terms rather than use nuclear weapons
• Core goal: regime survival
• Believe China cannot survive full-bore nuclear war