Scale of Electricity Challenge

• World currently generates ~25 trillion kilowatt hours (25 petawatt hours) electricity annually
• 1 petawatt hour = 1 trillion kilowatt hours
• Over 1/3 of current electricity generation already clean (hydro, nuclear, wind, solar)
• Current policies project 25 petawatt hours clean generation by 2050
  • 2.5x today's clean generation amount
  • Equal to today's total generation
• Key point: Need 5x more than projected clean generation = 120 petawatt hours total
  • 12x today's clean electricity production
  • 5x today's total global electricity system

Four Main Reasons for Massive Scale Increase

1. Electrification Requirements

• Scientists' goal: net-negative emissions globally by ~2050
• Must electrify vehicles, heating systems, industrial processes
• Electric equipment more efficient than fuel-based equipment
• Electrifying 60% (ambitious target) increases demand to ~40 petawatt hours by 2050

2. Global Energy Access and Development

• 700+ million people lack electricity access
• Billions more have limited/unreliable supply
• Rich countries: slower energy demand growth (increased efficiency)
• Developing countries: dramatic energy demand growth
• Energy access drives poverty reduction, education, commerce, healthcare, lower birth rates
• Climate solutions must center on massive energy expansion in developing countries
• Global development projections: 60 petawatt hours needed by 2050

3. Non-Electrifiable Sectors

• Long-range airplanes need liquid fuel energy density
• Some industrial processes can't be electrified by 2050
• Current models use overoptimistic assumptions:
  • Factories use carbon capture (costly, requires government mandates)
  • Long-range vehicles use sustainable biofuel (requires strict enforcement globally)
• Plan for imperfect policy implementation
• Solution: synthesize carbon-neutral/carbon-free fuels using electricity
  • Hydrogen, ammonia, synthetic jet fuel
• Estimate: ~90 petawatt hours per year needed for confidence

4. Net-Negative Emissions Requirement

• Need net-negative (not just net-zero) emissions by 2050
• Remaining non-energy emissions from agriculture
• Must pull CO2 from atmosphere to compensate
• Use all carbon-removal methods at maximum capacity
• Direct air-capture: fan arrays filtering CO2 from air
• Restore safe temperatures within decades (not centuries)
• Comfortable carbon removal rate: 120 petawatt hours per year total

Implementation Strategy

• Build new electricity generation early in transition (starting now)
• Ensure clean electricity abundant and cheap by 2050
• Allow time for dependent transitions to fully roll out
• Benefits: eliminate poverty faster, water desalination, strengthen medical supply chains

Mindset Shift Required

• Discard "replacing fossil fuel generation" mindset
• Project is building entirely new global electricity system
• Not changing current system - building new system
• Comparable to WWII-era manufacturing boom
• Building massive amounts of barely-built-before technologies
• Need all clean sources: hydro, solar, wind, nuclear, advanced nuclear, advanced geothermal, carbon capture mandates
• Arguments over which clean sources unhelpful - need everything

Vision for New World

• Energy that's healthier, doesn't pollute air
• Cheaper energy with global access
• Higher incomes, longer/better lives
• Greater equality
• Better world overall