Supersonic Planes are Coming Back (And This Time, They Might Work)

Wendover Productions

Concorde's Financial Reality

Concorde was actually profitable despite popular narrative
Fuel efficiency comparison:
- 747: 1 gallon per passenger per 80 miles (1 liter per 34 km)
- Concorde: 1 gallon per passenger per 17 miles (1 liter per 7 km)
Current fuel costs: $1.68 per gallon
- 747 NYC-London fuel cost: $73.50 per passenger
- Concorde fuel cost: $346 per passenger (burning 206 gallons/780 liters)
Concorde ticket price: ~$16,000 round trip (inflation-adjusted)
Airlines paid small sum for aircraft relative to multi-billion development cost (bankrolled by French/British governments)
Both Air France and British Airways turned tidy profit across 3 decades of service

Limited versatility:
- 4,500 mile (7,200 km) range
- Sonic boom restrictions banned supersonic flight over land
- Very few viable routes
Capacity challenges:
- Seats priced above first class (~$16,000 round trip)
- Few routes can sustain high first-class capacity
- British Airways operates only 98 first-class seats London-NYC daily (non-COVID)
- Concorde's double daily service: ~200 first-class equivalent seats
Load factors:
- Typical 50-60% load factor still profitable
- Could break even at 35% load factor
- Final months: discounted to business class pricing = 70% load factor + $70M profit (highest ever)

July 25, 2000: Air France Concorde FBTSC crash at Charles de Gaulle
- Ran over engine cowling debris from previous departure
- Tire blowout → fuel tank rupture → fire
- 113 lives lost
Image damage to marketing tool rather than profit center
Rising maintenance costs as aircraft aged
Airlines preferred passengers on subsonic first-class services (higher profit margins)
Both airlines refused to sell aircraft (worried about losing loyal customers entirely)

Sonic boom = continuous 110 decibel noise (chainsaw loudness) along entire flight path
Nearly every country bans supersonic flight over land
NASA X-59 Low Boom Flight Demonstrator Program:
- Contracted Lockheed Martin
- Goal: reduce boom from chainsaw to car door closing loudness
- Elongated shape + strategic canards spread shockwaves
- First flight 2022, testing 2023-2025
- Seeking new acceptable sonic boom standard by 2025
Aerion/Spike betting on 2025 regulatory changes
Boom accepting current restrictions, focusing on transoceanic routes

Supersonic travel less attractive than Concorde era:
- Modern business class: lie-flat beds, overnight productivity
- 1970s-90s: highest service similar to today's premium economy
- Modern aircraft: WiFi enables 7 hours productive work on transatlantic flights
Private jet market advantages:
- Price sensitivity lower
- Time/convenience/prestige valued over comfort
- 500-600 aircraft demand projected (Aerion, next 20 years)
- Existing market: 100+ A320 family private jets at $100M+
- Thousands of billionaires globally
Boom's commercial strategy:
- Business class pricing vs Concorde's first class
- Concorde's final 6 months: business class pricing = most profitable period
- Must prove low enough purchase/fuel/maintenance costs

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