Introduction and Core Thesis

• Speaker works in international security and conflict resolution
• Topic: blind spots related to decarbonization and security implications
• Key argument: climate-safe future requires peace, but renewables aren't automatically "energy of peace"
• Materials needed for decarbonization are "pretty and deadly"

The Material Reality of Decarbonization

• Green growth = decoupling economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions
• Reality: must recouple economic growth with intensive mineral extraction
• Renewable technologies (solar panels, windmills, batteries) require massive mining of non-renewable materials
• Mines must be enormous to produce usable material quantities
• "Our ticket to green growth is digging deep in the environment"

Historical Context and Energy Transitions

• When dominant energy sources change, power relations shift
• Countries controlling energy transformation gain economic/political advantage
• Examples: UK with coal, US with oil becoming global superpower
• Energy access/processing materializes into geopolitical power shaping ability
• Current challenge: biggest energy transition in human history under climate time pressure
• "Race for new generation of power" centered on critical materials for decarbonization and digitalization

Exponential Demand Growth

• Beginning of exponential demand curve for critical materials
• Lithium production increased ~300% between 2010-2020
• Good news: decarbonization in motion
• Bad news: "clean" future more materially intensive than before
• International Energy Agency: electric car requires 6x more mineral inputs than conventional car
• World Bank projections: global production of graphite and cobalt will increase 500% by 2050 just for clean energy technologies

Current Supply Chain Dynamics

• Lithium: Chile and Australia dominate extraction, China dominates processing
• Cobalt: Democratic Republic of Congo dominates extraction, China dominates processing
• Nickel: Indonesia and Philippines dominate extraction, China dominates processing
• Rare earths: China dominates both extraction and processing
• China leveraged geo-economic rise over last 2 decades by integrating rare earth supply chains from extraction to processing to export
• European Union 98% dependent on China for rare earths
• China positioned to redesign global balance of power

Emerging Resource Scramble

• China expanding access through Belt and Road Initiative
• US and Europe considering reshoring critical mining and processing
• Japan exploring oceanic marine reserves for strategic reserves
• Ukraine context: mineral-rich country, had EU partnership for critical raw materials supply chain diversification
• Partnership designed to help EU decarbonize and integrate Ukraine politically/economically
• Invasion occurred 8 months after partnership struck
• New scramble for resources with big players eyeing countries with vast mineral deposits

Geographic Risk Concentration

• Target countries mostly in Africa, Latin America, Central Asia, Indo-Pacific
• International Institute for Sustainable Development 2018 map shows concerning overlaps:
  • Many deposits in countries ranking high on corruption indices
  • Materials located in fragile countries (Sri Lanka) or conflict-affected (Myanmar, Central African Republic)
  • Notre Dame Institute data: climate vulnerable countries are also resource endowed
  • Critical ecosystems needed for climate stability located in same fragile countries with mineral deposits
  • Eliminating these ecosystems through mining would undermine planetary security

Perfect Storm Scenario

• Corruption + institutional/socioeconomic fragility + climate disruptions + environmental plundering
• All acting as backdrop to competition for decarbonization minerals
• Factors will magnify and reinforce each other if resource scramble not reined in
• Resource-rich countries may suffer most direct consequences
• But consequences will reverberate worldwide
• Blind spot: decarbonization trajectory may undermine ecological integrity and heighten conflict risks

Four-Point Action Plan

1. Science-Based Approach

• Science determines where safe to mine ecologically vs. where not safe
• Where unsafe: treat minerals as non-existent, establish protected areas with no mining licensing
• Where mining occurs: integrate socioeconomic and ecological regeneration within business models

2. Global Public Good Regime

• If decarbonization = human survival, then materials should be managed collectively under global public good regime
• Alternative is conflict and planetary breakdown
• Countries at heart of resource scramble need adequate, competent, coherent support
• Must address joint challenges of geopolitical competition and climate disruptions
• Top priorities: conflict resolution, anti-corruption fight, context-specific resilience

3. Economic Model Transformation

• Can't just switch energy systems - must reduce energy and material needs
• Massive public/private investment in circular economic models favoring recyclability and material substitution
• Necessary but not sufficient step
• Need ecological assessments for supply chains accounting for: greenhouse gas emissions, water, soil, biodiversity, material and energy footprint simultaneously
• Only comprehensive basis will show how supply/distribution chains and globalization must transform

4. Innovation Redefinition

• Innovation = bringing economic footprint within planetary boundaries
• Anything not aligned with this goal isn't innovation, it's business as usual

Regenerative Foreign Policy Framework

• Speaker's team at Carnegie Europe working on regenerative foreign policy
• Two key requirements:
  • Tackle fundamental economic redistribution issues globally
  • Achieve geopolitical de-escalation around decarbonization and regeneration
• Translated into "ecological diplomacy" concept
• Pushing EU to adopt framework in foreign policy
• Ecological integrity = foundation for all security types
• Common denominator for collective rebuilding efforts

Conclusion

• Decarbonization is the way forward - no doubt allowed
• But must imagine future beyond decarbonization already
• Climate-safe future necessary for peace, but won't achieve climate-safe future without peace
• Need to shake up international politics and business/economics approaches
• Must shed light on transition blind spots as guiding companions
• Identify truly systemic, peaceful approaches for climate-disrupted futures