Election Overview

• November 3rd 2020: hundreds of millions Americans vote for next US president
• Multi-year, multi-billion dollar election process
• Massive overnight exercise to count hundreds of millions of votes
• Typically declare winner by early hours following morning

Early Voting Results

• First results: early morning election day before most polls open
• Small East Coast towns compete to be first precinct reporting
• Dixville Notch, New Hampshire most famous
• New Hampshire law allows early poll closure when all registered voters cast ballots
• Town has ~12 registered voters, process finished in minutes/seconds
• Votes read out and tallied in front of major news organization cameras

US Voting System Complexity

• 178,000+ individual voting precincts nationwide
• Each precinct operates slightly differently
• Voting methods vary:
  • Paper ballots read/interpreted manually
  • Paper ballots scanned by machine
  • Electronic voting machines
  • Absentee voting over internet

Voting Method Trade-offs

• Paper ballots: simple, cheap, process many voters simultaneously, difficult to count
• Electronic machines: expensive, complicated, short supply, longer lines, nearly instantaneous counting/reporting
• Security concerns:
  • Most secure: handwritten paper ballots (fraudulent votes require physical ballot acquisition)
  • Least secure: electronic machines (can be hacked)
  • Almost every voting machine hacked in controlled experiments at DEFCON
  • Real world compromise frequency unknown

Poll Closing and Vote Counting Process

• First polls close: 6 PM Eastern (parts of Indiana and Kentucky)
• Both states use mix of optical scan and direct record electronic machines
• Kentucky: majority Hart InterCivic II scans (optical scan machines)
  • Voters fill paper ballot, shade bubbles, feed into scanning machine
• Indiana: majority MicroVote Infinitys (direct record electronic machines)
  • Fully electronic, voter selects on screen, presses button to cast

Vote Collection and Transport

• 6 PM: machines switched off, print physical paper backup with vote tallies
• Poll workers remove memory devices storing totals
• Every step witnessed by multiple people from different political parties
• Papers and memory devices packed in sealed envelopes
• Usually driven by county police to central counting location
• Los Angeles County exception: uses helicopters due to traffic
  • Flies voting records from across county to Norwalk
  • Costs many millions per Election Day

Central Vote Tabulation

• Memory devices plugged into tabulating computer at central location
• Results from early and absentee voting added
• Electronic nature makes count quick once votes arrive
• Observed by bipartisan group of poll workers and officials

Media Election Projections

• Media declares winner before all votes counted
• Based on two key information sources:
  1. Election day polling systems:
     • Associated Press VoteCast: voters polled at home via internet/phone days before election
     • National Election Pool (ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC): traditional exit polls at polling stations
  2. Actual results sampling

Associated Press Vote Reporting System

• 4,000 AP reporters stationed in vote counting centers nationwide
• Results called to AP office in Spokane, Washington
• Hundreds of data entry personnel input information into AP system
• Unofficial data used by news organizations worldwide
• Results come in precinct by precinct throughout night

Election Night Timeline

• Last polls close: 1 AM Eastern (Alaska)
• Country likely knows winner before then
• AP DC Bureau calls the race state-by-state
• 2016 examples:
  • Massachusetts, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, DC called for Clinton immediately at 8 PM Eastern
  • Based on historical voting trends and exit polling
  • Battleground states require actual results
  • Minnesota called 11:09 AM Eastern day after
  • Alaska called 11:58 AM Eastern day after

Winner Declaration Process

• Electoral votes of called states exceed required 270 majority
• AP sends "flash" alert (highest tier, <2 per year average)
• Flash used for top stories: Osama bin Laden killing, Pope Benedict resignation, Nelson Mandela death
• AP usually first major news organization to declare winner
• Historically happens 9-11 PM Eastern, sometimes earlier/later
• Traditional process: loser calls winner, winner throws party, sitting president calls president-elect next day
• Official results may take days/weeks for complete tally
• Four-year cycle begins again after official results