Background on African Coups

• January: Russian flags waved in Burkina Faso streets after military coup
  • Military supporters chanted "Viva Russia"
  • Signs read "we demand cooperation with Russia, France get out"
• Similar pro-Russian demonstrations in Mali with Putin's face on signs
• Africa experienced more coups in past year than in decades
  • UN head called it "epidemic"
• Millions now living under military rule

Root Causes of Instability

• Violence from Islamist groups linked to al-Qaeda, ISIS, Boko Haram
  • Groups expanding targets, seizing valuable property
  • Taking over local governments in some areas
• 2021: particularly bad year
  • Violent incidents in Sahel nearly doubled from previous year
  • More than half of incidents occurred in Burkina Faso
• Citizens feel France (former colonial power) not positive security partner

US Involvement and Training Programs

• Years of US aid and training exercises to combat extremism
• Special forces training program "Flintlock" held annually in West Africa
  • US elite forces training African commando units
• Irony: Some US-trained African militaries later overthrew civilian governments
  • Includes Burkina Faso military leader
• US legal restrictions triggered by coups
  • Once State Department declares coup, US cannot provide:
    • Military training
    • Military equipment
    • Financial assistance

Russian Wagner Group Operations

• Wagner filling void as Western militaries withdraw
• Activities: making money, gaining mining concessions, expanding Moscow influence
• Wagner Group structure:
  • Shadowy military company employing former Russian soldiers
  • Kremlin denies formal ties but acts as proxy for Russian defense ministry
  • Funded by Yevgeny Prigozhin (oligarch/"Putin's chef")
• Satellite evidence shows Wagner base shares training facilities with Russian special forces
• Wagner bases established in Central African Republic and Mali
  • Mali: suspected forward operating base next to Malian air force base
  • ~1,000 Russian mercenaries operating in Mali
  • Hired by Mali's military leaders for security

Western Response and Withdrawal

• France-Mali falling out led to French withdrawal
  • February: France announced withdrawal of thousands of troops
  • Troops had been fighting extremism in country
• Wagner mercenaries useful to military leaders because they:
  • Help maintain power
  • Spread disinformation to influence public opinion
  • Promote narrative of liberation from French neo-colonialism

Future Implications and Concerns

• Analysts fear similar pattern in Burkina Faso and other fragile nations
• Pushes West farther away, allows Russian influence expansion
• Western officials' concerns about Wagner Group:
  • Makes countries poorer, weaker, less secure
  • Takes government money, natural resources, strategic land
  • Accused of massacres and human rights abuses
  • "Malign influence" that "buttresses dictators"
  • "Gross violations of human rights"
• Future uncertain for millions under military rule in Sahel